

Banks’ earnings and ROE could suffer accordingly. WeChat Pay and AliPay dominate China’s mobile payments landscape. This could happen if the PBOC decides commercial banks have failed to transmit China’s monetary policy. In Q1 2017, Alipay’s market share dropped to 54 percent, with WeChat Pay claiming 40 percent. E-yuan funding at the PBOC could be directly channeled to areas targeted by Chinese authorities, such as inclusive finance, green and tech industries, in the form of credits. In one future scenario the central bank could opt to pay interest on digital yuan, and its wallet may bypass banks to tap deposits. The PBOC may consider expanding its application beyond the monetary base (M0) to M1 and M2 after the base of e-yuan’s users reaches a critical mass like 1 billion. The role of big Chinese commercial banks in the economy could diminish if the digital yuan, now in a late stage of pilot testing, proliferates in the coming five years. Banks’ future to be determined by PBOC e-yuan choices The e-yuan may also take significant market share from the private payment giants. Forecast to reach a combined user base of nearly 2.5 billion users by 2025, AliPay and WeChat Pay are believed to remain dominant mobile payment methods in China. The PBOC has an option to expand the e-yuan’s application beyond the monetary base to M1 and M2, diminishing banks’ role in the economy. It appeared first on the Bloomberg Terminal.Ĭhina’s digital yuan, pushed by the central bank, could substantially threaten Chinese banks, Alipay and WeChat Pay.

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This analysis is by Bloomberg Intelligence Analyst Francis Chan. Wechat Verification ' Weixin Pay' Any Country '.
